New analysis suggests merchants could also be manipulating Polymarket’s 5-minute Bitcoin bets to maneuver the stakes their manner.
Researchers from Stanford College and the Singapore Administration College mentioned they studied roughly 16,000 five-minute Bitcoin contracts on Polymarket over two months and located indicators that merchants could also be manipulating Binance’s spot value.
“Through the last seconds earlier than settlement, spot order circulation on Binance spikes, and value fluctuations return to regular instantly after settlement,” the paper mentioned. “Clearly it is a momentary try to control spot costs, not an knowledgeable commerce.”
Examine Accusing Binance of Polymarket Manipulation
Polymarket makes use of Chainlink oracles for 5-minute contracts and obtains common BTC costs on main spot exchanges. Nevertheless, the researchers mentioned that given its quantity, Binance is an “economically demanding agent” for oracle pricing.
Binance’s mid-price may be very near an oracle, and “a push that pushes Binance midway up by just a few foundation factors above the strike will certainly convey decision,” the researchers mentioned, including that the contract will finish on the identical facet as Binance 85% of the time.
The research urged that Polymarket, in addition to different buying and selling platforms providing related contracts, might face related vulnerabilities because of the manner bets are resolved.
“There are structural weaknesses in these contracts,” mentioned one of many authors. “They decide on a value that merchants can transfer by buying and selling the underlying asset itself.”
Polymarket addresses betting manipulation considerations
Commenting on the findings, a Polymarket spokesperson mentioned the platform is contemplating changing a few of its markets to fee strategies that use costs over time reasonably than a single time limit over the following yr.
Polymarket has been within the information earlier than over considerations of manipulation.
Final yr, Cryptopolitan reported {that a} Columbia College research discovered that 25% of Polymarket’s buying and selling exercise over the previous three years was synthetic and organized by means of wash buying and selling.
In March 2026, Polymarket strengthened market integrity guidelines throughout CFTC-regulated US exchanges and DeFi platforms. The brand new guidelines cowl the corporate’s market design requirements, decision requirements and information sourcing necessities.
