Europe’s dependence on U.S. liquefied pure fuel is about to extend subsequent 12 months because the EU continues its efforts to section out fossil gasoline imports from Russia, in accordance with a brand new evaluation printed Wednesday by IEEFA.
The report estimates that the US might provide practically two-thirds of Europe’s LNG imports in 2026, strengthening the US’ dominant place within the continent’s fuel market after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the struggle with Iran reshaped world power flows.
In line with IEEFA, the US will already account for 57% of Europe’s LNG imports in 2025, a big improve in comparison with prewar ranges.
The group warned that shares might proceed to rise within the coming years if present import tendencies persist and extra long-term provide contracts come into impact.
The findings come as most European governments intention to utterly section out fuel imports from Russia by 2027 underneath the European Fee’s REPowerEU technique.
From 2022 onwards, EU member states are quickly growing their LNG purchases, particularly from the US, to compensate for the decline in Russian pipeline deliveries.
IEEFA stated the transition improved Europe’s short-term power safety, but additionally elevated focus dangers.
The suppose tank argued that changing dependence on Russian fuel with a big reliance on one other single various provider might expose Europe to future political and market instability.
Demand is low, however imports and funding are growing
The report famous that LNG imports from the US are usually dearer than pipeline fuel as a result of liquefaction, transportation, and regasification prices.
IEEFA estimates that EU international locations spent round €117 billion on US LNG imports from early 2022 to mid-2025.
A number of European policymakers and regulators have beforehand warned in opposition to overreliance on imported LNG.
Earlier this 12 months, European Fee Government Vice President Teresa Rivera stated the European Union ought to keep away from changing one power dependency with one other and as an alternative speed up investments in renewable energy and electrification.
The European Union Power Regulatory Cooperation Company has additionally expressed concern about provide focus dangers related to the growing position of US LNG within the European market.
The rise in LNG imports comes regardless of a big decline in European fuel consumption in recent times.
The decline in demand is because of hovering costs following the power disaster, weakening of trade, power conservation measures, and accelerated introduction of renewable power.
European LNG imports fell in 2024 as fuel consumption fell to its lowest stage in additional than a decade, in accordance with IEEFA information. Nonetheless, imports recovered in 2025 as a result of chilly climate situations and authorities efforts to replenish space for storing.
On the similar time, a number of EU international locations proceed to increase their LNG import infrastructure.
Germany, which had beforehand relied closely on Russian pipeline fuel, has quickly developed floating LNG terminals and emerged as considered one of Europe’s largest patrons of U.S. LNG.
Analysts additionally query whether or not Europe dangers constructing an excessive amount of LNG import capability as long-term fuel demand is anticipated to fall additional in the course of the power transition within the coming years.
