The warmth wave is rising strain on Europe’s energy grids as rising temperatures enhance the necessity for air con in properties, workplaces and companies, rising demand for electrical energy, tightening electrical energy markets and, in some circumstances, lowering energy provides.
Air con penetration remains to be a lot decrease in Europe than in lots of different components of the world, however it’s rising as warmth waves grow to be extra frequent. In accordance with the Worldwide Vitality Company, round 20% of households have air con, and that proportion is predicted to extend because the continent warms.
Fabian Voswinkel, an power effectivity coverage analyst on the Worldwide Vitality Company (IEA), informed Euronews: “As Europe heats up, extra persons are having second ideas. Previously decade, air conditioner possession has elevated by about half, and annual gross sales are round 30% increased than simply 5 years in the past.”
Final week, Germany recorded unusually excessive temperatures for 3 consecutive days, with the jap city of Koschen reaching 41.7 levels Celsius on June 28. On June 24, France recorded the most well liked June day on document, with temperatures reaching 43.8°C in Palluot in western France. In Spain, June twenty third and twenty fourth had been the most well liked June days on document.
The IEA expects cooling demand to grow to be a rising supply of electrical energy consumption, though it’s unlikely to overhaul different calls for corresponding to electrical automobiles, knowledge facilities and warmth pumps.
“Cooling is a crucial, though not dominant, contributor to electrical energy demand progress in Europe,” Boswinkel stated.
How a lot has electrical energy demand elevated?
Europe-wide figures exhibiting how a lot electrical energy was used particularly for cooling throughout the June 2026 heatwave will not be but obtainable. To estimate the impression, Euronews Enterprise analyzed each day electrical energy demand within the EU’s 4 largest economies earlier than and through June’s hottest interval.
The primary half of June offers a helpful baseline, because the late June warmth wave had not but taken maintain throughout the 4 international locations. Though some areas skilled warmer-than-normal situations initially of the month, electrical energy demand broadly mirrored seasonal patterns, making comparisons simpler with the sharp enhance recorded in late June.
The figures present electrical energy demand elevated in all 4 of the EU’s largest economies because the heatwave intensified. In accordance with Eurelectric, each day consumption in Germany elevated from 1,267 GWh on June 11 to 1,396 GWh on June 25. France recorded an excellent greater enhance over the identical interval, from 1,048GWh to 1,255GWh, whereas Italy and Spain additionally noticed demand enhance. Though the will increase different by nation, the general sample was clear. Sizzling climate has led to elevated electrical energy consumption.
The most important absolute enhance was recorded in France, the place each day electrical energy demand elevated by virtually 20% over two weeks. Germany, Italy and Spain additionally recorded vital will increase, though the magnitude different by nation.
In accordance with French energy grid operator RTE, throughout heatwaves, power consumption sometimes will increase by 0.7 GW to 1 GW for each diploma Celsius rise (relying on the time of day). That is one-third the impression of a 1 diploma drop in winter temperatures. Subsequently, the impression of cooling wants could be very prone to have considerably slowed the common each day 10-14 GW enhance in consumption over the past week in comparison with the identical interval of seasonal temperatures.
Wholesale electrical energy costs are additionally rising
Elevated demand for electrical energy and tight provide had been additionally mirrored within the wholesale electrical energy market.
Wholesale electrical energy costs rose considerably throughout Europe’s largest electrical energy market as demand for air con elevated throughout the heatwave, however the extent of the rise different relying on every nation’s power combine and market situations.
Wholesale electrical energy costs are the costs suppliers pay to buy electrical energy earlier than promoting it to households and companies. They react virtually immediately to modifications in provide and demand and are extensively seen as an indicator of stress within the energy system. Whereas most customers, usually protected by mounted or regulated charges, will not be instantly affected by worth will increase, sustained will increase can finally be mirrored in retail electrical energy costs as suppliers renew contracts or regulators modify charges.
In accordance with knowledge from Eurelectric, wholesale electrical energy costs rose considerably in Germany, France and Spain throughout the warmth wave. No comparable knowledge had been obtainable for Italy. In all three markets, costs peaked between June 23 and 24, coinciding with the very best electrical energy demand and temperatures.
Germany, which shares a wholesale electrical energy market with Luxembourg, recorded the very best worth, exceeding €200/MWh. France additionally skilled a pointy rise, with costs reaching virtually €160/MWh, whereas Spain recorded a extra modest rise, peaking at simply over €110/MWh.
Rising costs don’t simply mirror elevated demand for electrical energy.
Throughout northwest Europe, wind energy manufacturing in Germany has fallen sharply, simply as demand was rising on the peak of the warmth wave. With low cost wind energy not obtainable, the market was pressured to depend on dearer gas-fired and coal-fired energy technology, which decided wholesale costs.
France is normally Germany’s major supply of comparatively low cost imported electrical energy. This time, nevertheless, France was pressured to scale back its nuclear energy technology. EDF, France’s state-run electrical energy firm, needed to lower 4.1GW of nuclear energy technology, about 7% of France’s electrical energy demand on the time, as a result of river temperatures rose too excessive, limiting the supply of secure cooling water for reactors.
Cooling is changing into a big a part of Europe’s power use
The rise in demand and costs is because of cooling changing into a bigger a part of Europe’s power consumption requirements.
Eurostat knowledge reveals annual family power consumption, notably for cooling, has virtually doubled throughout the EU since 2015, with France, Germany, Italy and Spain all recording vital will increase over the previous decade.
This development coincides with a decade of repeated heatwaves. Following a devastating heatwave in 2003, Europe skilled its worst summer season heatwave on document in 2022, and southeastern Europe recorded its longest heatwave on document in 2024.
Even so, air con will nonetheless account for under 0.8% of the EU’s closing power consumption in 2024, highlighting that air con remains to be much less widespread than in international locations corresponding to america and Japan.
Is Europe prepared for extra frequent heatwaves?
Fabian Boswinkel, an power effectivity coverage analyst on the Worldwide Vitality Company, stated Europe’s energy methods had been usually ready to deal with elevated cooling demand, though the impression would differ from nation to nation.
“Managing this progress will primarily rely on effectivity and adaptability. Bettering the efficiency of chillers can considerably cut back further electrical energy demand, particularly given the continued use of much less environment friendly transportable items in lots of markets.”
Boswinkel additionally stated that solar energy will grow to be more and more necessary as a result of cooling demand is highest throughout the day, when solar energy is most energetic. Because of this a lot of the extra electrical energy demand will be met with comparatively low-carbon electrical energy, lowering the necessity for extra storage.
Nonetheless, future electrical energy demand won’t solely rely on rising temperatures. The impression of extra frequent heatwaves is dependent upon the possession of air con tools, the effectivity of buildings, and the way successfully energy methods can shift demand and retailer renewable power. As Europe warms, air con is changing into extra of a public well being and security concern than a consolation one, highlighting the necessity for energy methods that may deal with rising cooling calls for.
