Based on the most recent information from the Statistics Heart of Iran (SCI), the Shopper Worth Index (CPI) for the interval from Might 22 to June 21, 2026 was 88.6% increased than the identical interval final yr. The truth is, a family that spent 100 foreign money models on the identical basket of products and companies a yr in the past would want to spend about 189 foreign money models to buy that basket.
Economists consider the sharp rise in costs is because of a mixture of long-standing structural challenges and more moderen pressures. These embody weak financial administration, persistent fiscal and monetary imbalances, the continued impression of worldwide sanctions, weak progress prospects, elevated uncertainty within the enterprise setting, and widening fiscal deficits. Extra just lately, navy conflicts and rising regional tensions have positioned additional pressure on Iran’s financial system by growing funding dangers, disrupting financial exercise, and straining public funds.
Statistics middle and central financial institution figures
Alongside the figures launched by the Statistics Heart of Iran (SCI), the Central Financial institution of Iran (CBI) additionally stories totally different inflation estimates. Based on the CBI, on the finish of the interval Might 22 to June 21, 2026, the year-on-year inflation price stood at 83.1% and the annual inflation price was 57.7%.
These estimates differ from these revealed by the SCI, which reported an annual inflation price of 62.0% and a year-over-year inflation price of 88.6% for a similar interval.
The distinction between the 2 estimates is 4.3 share factors for annual inflation and 5.5 share factors for year-over-year inflation. Such disagreements will not be new in Iran and have recurred lately.
This distinction primarily displays methodological variations such because the composition of the family consumption basket, the weights assigned to particular person items and companies, and information assortment and sampling methods. Though each companies search to measure adjustments within the normal worth stage, variations in methodology can result in considerably totally different inflation estimates.
Regardless of these statistical variations, each numbers present the identical underlying pattern. Which means Iran is experiencing probably the most extreme inflation in many years. Sustained speedy worth will increase will not be a short lived shock, however have turn out to be a structural function of the financial system.
Inflation price accelerates from 52% to just about 90%
Current information exhibits that inflationary pressures are persevering with to accentuate, moderately than ease. Yr-on-year inflation rose from 52.6% in December 2025 to roughly 68% in February 2026, after which additional elevated to 88.6% within the interval from Might 22 to June 21, 2026.
This trajectory means that inflationary pressures have gotten more and more sturdy and mirror deeper structural imbalances moderately than a short lived or purely monetary phenomenon.
Worldwide forecasts additionally point out a bleak outlook. The Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF) predicts that Iran’s annual inflation price will common round 68.9% in 2026, making it one of many international locations with the very best inflation charges on the earth. On the similar time, the IMF forecasts that actual GDP will contract by about 6.1%, indicating continued stress on financial exercise.
Quick-term worth traits are additionally value noting. The buyer worth index elevated by 5.9% within the single months from April 22 to Might 21, 2026 and from Might 22 to June 21, 2026 (durations akin to the Iranian months of Ordibehesht and Khordad, respectively).
Month-to-month will increase of this magnitude reveal the pace with which costs are rising, making it more and more tough for households to keep up buying energy and plan their funds.
change price depreciation and inflation
Iran’s inflation surge is likely one of the most extreme the nation has skilled since World Battle II, and is carefully associated to the sharp depreciation of the rial. Inflation eroded the buying energy of the foreign money, whereas successive depreciations of the rial fueled additional inflation by growing import prices and rising inflation expectations.
Earlier this yr, the US greenback was buying and selling at about 1.35 million rials on Tehran’s open market. After america and Israel launched airstrikes in opposition to Iran on February 28, the change price rose to roughly 1.72 million rials to the greenback.
Through the battle, the change price briefly rose to roughly 1.46 million rials to the greenback as financial and industrial exercise slowed and demand for international foreign money decreased. Nonetheless, the rial got here below new stress after President Donald Trump threatened additional US airstrikes on crucial infrastructure in Iran on April 7, with the change price depreciating to about 1.63 million rials to the greenback.
After the ceasefire was introduced, the change price recovered to roughly 1,525,000 rials to the greenback. Nonetheless, as financial exercise resumed and Iranian authorities estimated war-related damages at roughly US$300 billion, the rial once more depreciated sharply, with the change price reaching a document stage of 1.9 million rials to the US greenback.
Subsequently, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Tehran and Washington, which brought on the rial to briefly respect, returning the change price to round 1.53 million rials to the greenback. Nonetheless, renewed tensions between Iran and america brought on the change price to rise once more, approaching 1.7 million rials to the greenback.
These developments reveal the extent to which change price actions have turn out to be an essential transmission channel of inflation in Iran. Fluctuations within the rial have an effect on not solely the home prices of imported items and manufacturing inputs, but additionally the inflation expectations of households and companies, growing upward stress on costs.
unequal burden
Inflation doesn’t have an effect on all strata of society equally. Official information exhibits that low-income households have skilled a big decline in buying energy in comparison with higher-income teams.
The year-on-year inflation price reached 108.1% in rural areas, in comparison with 85.2% in city areas. This disparity is especially pronounced as a result of low-income households usually spend a big proportion of their earnings on important items and companies, particularly meals, making them extra uncovered to cost will increase.
From a distributional perspective, inflation acts as an implicit tax, disproportionately lowering the true incomes of households least capable of save, make investments, or defend themselves from worth will increase.
Meals is on the coronary heart of the price of dwelling disaster
The steepest worth will increase have been recorded in classes most carefully associated to on a regular basis family expenditures. Based on official statistics, meals costs greater than doubled in comparison with the identical interval final yr.
Yr-on-year inflation reached 173.8% for tobacco, roughly 178% for meat, poultry and associated merchandise, roughly 152% for milk, cheese and eggs, and roughly 139% for bread and cereals.
Classes apart from meals additionally recorded important worth will increase. Costs for furnishings and residential furnishings rose greater than 111%, and transportation prices rose greater than 103%.
These numbers counsel that the inflation shock extends far past meals costs. Along with rising costs for every day requirements, households are additionally going through important will increase in the price of family items and transportation, additional lowering buying energy and growing stress on family budgets.
wages are under the price of dwelling
Probably the most apparent results of persistent inflation is the widening hole between wages and the price of assembly fundamental dwelling bills.
Based on the Iranian Labor Information Company (ILNA), the official minimal wage for this yr was set at 166,255,000 rials (roughly 85 euros), whereas representatives at a gathering of the Supreme Labor Council on March 13, 2026 estimated that the minimal value of dwelling for a family can be roughly 450 million rials (roughly 225 euros) monthly.
On this foundation, the official minimal wage covers solely about 37% of the estimated value of the essential livelihood basket, leaving about 63% brief.
The numbers present how rapidly inflation is eroding actual wages. Though nominal wages have elevated over time, they haven’t saved tempo with rising prices of important items and companies, growing stress on family dwelling requirements.
Extra broadly, Iran’s inflation downside goes past rising costs. The mix of persistent inflation, foreign money depreciation, and declining buying energy continues to create a self-reinforcing cycle that undermines family and financial stability.
