Whereas crypto markets struggled broadly in Q2 2026, with declines throughout stablecoins, spot buying and selling, and derivatives, prediction markets reached file highs.
Spot buying and selling quantity throughout the highest 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) declined to $1.95 trillion within the second quarter of 2026, down 27.9% from $2.7 trillion within the first quarter, in accordance with the newest crypto business report launched by CoinGecko on Thursday.
CEX perpetual futures buying and selling quantity additionally fell by 10% to $12.7 trillion, and the stablecoin market fell by 1.6% to $305.1 billion. In distinction, prediction markets had their greatest quarter ever with whole notional worth of $113.8 billion.
This disconnect highlights the rising function of prediction markets, with sports activities and politics rising because the sector’s greatest drivers. Based on Polymarketscan knowledge, Polymarket’s World Cup Wins market alone has attracted greater than $3.3 billion in buying and selling quantity, with contracts associated to the 2028 US presidential election rating among the many platform’s largest markets.
Supply: Polymarketscan
Binance expands its dominance regardless of bear market as DEX exercise declines
Regardless of the bear market, Binance expanded its dominance, gaining 38.7% market share within the second quarter. In distinction, MEXC noticed the largest decline amongst spot CEXs, with buying and selling quantity falling by greater than half from $275.2 billion within the first quarter to $121.2 billion within the second quarter.
DEX exercise was additionally weak in the course of the quarter, with the highest 10 spot DEXs processing $408.9 billion, down from $556.4 billion within the first quarter. Uniswap held a 41.2% market share and strengthened its place because the main DEX regardless of a 21.4% decline in buying and selling quantity to $168.5 billion.
Supply: CoinGecko
The decline comes amid a downturn within the broader crypto market, with market capitalization falling 12.6% to $2.1 trillion within the quarter. April additionally marked a file month for hacks in decentralized finance (DeFi), highlighting ongoing safety issues throughout decentralized platforms.
Kalsi maintains lead as prediction market expands
Prediction market exercise peaked in June, coinciding with the beginning of the FIFA World Cup, with month-to-month notional worth (the whole worth of all contracts traded) reaching an all-time excessive of $50.7 billion, a rise of 91.9% from the earlier five-month common.
Kalshi, the most important prediction market platform, maintained its lead within the quarter with 58.9% market share, whereas Polymarket misplaced share from 35.8% to 30.2%. Robinhood-backed Rothera Markets rose to fourth place.
This development has attracted the eye of regulators. Lawsuits over platforms akin to Calsi will intensify in 2026 as regulators and states within the U.S. are at odds over whether or not prediction markets ought to be handled as monetary markets or playing platforms.
Authorities in different jurisdictions have additionally moved to limit prediction markets, citing issues about playing guidelines, market integrity and potential insider buying and selling dangers.
